Within the pre-pandemic yr of 2019, consumers with mainland China backgrounds accounted for 8.4 per cent of complete house gross sales in Hong Kong, in response to Midland Realty. Shopping for by mainland Chinese language peaked in 2011 at 11 per cent of all houses, or 30.2 per cent of recent houses.
Annual transactions by consumers who weren’t Hong Kong everlasting residents or firms fell by about 76 per cent in the course of the pandemic, in response to Inland Income Division statistics cited by Midland Realty.
That is primarily based on the variety of circumstances liable to pay the Purchaser’s Stamp Responsibility, which solely applies to such consumers. There have been 2,311 such transactions from 2020 to November 2022, or about 770 offers per yr. In distinction, there have been 9,484 such offers from 2017 to 2019, or about 3,160 offers per yr.
In different phrases, the border closure value the market about 2,400 offers a yr, or 7,200 offers over three years, Midland stated.
Now, builders and brokers hope consumers from throughout the border will give the market a shot within the arm after complete residential transactions in 2022 plummeted 39.4 per cent yr on yr to 45,050, the bottom degree since record-keeping started in 1997, in response to the Land Registry.
But business watchers additionally know restoration will take time.
“Though border reopening is a very sturdy drugs to treatment the weak market sentiment and impaired market situations, Hong Kong’s been like a sick particular person for greater than three years,” stated Tony Wan, director of gross sales and advertising and marketing for Hong Kong Properties at Ok Wah Worldwide.
Wan stated the significance of border reopening is extra about stimulating cross-border financial exercise and bettering the financial system, after which individuals will probably be extra all in favour of shopping for houses.
The town must do extra to strengthen financial well being, together with the measures outlined in Chief Government John Lee Ka-chiu’s Coverage Handle to draw expertise, buyers, funding capital and know-how to Hong Kong, Wan stated. “It takes time to get better,” he added. “There’s no miracle.”
One constructive signal within the property market in the intervening time is shopping for by Hongkongers who lately acquired everlasting residency. Mortgage purposes by this group accounted for 11.4 per cent of these dealt with by mReferral Mortgage Brokerage Companies within the fourth quarter, the very best since information began in 2018.
The federal government’s High quality Migrant Admission Scheme seeks to draw extremely expert or gifted folks to settle in Hong Kong to boost the town’s financial competitiveness. Whereas the coverage has seen a surge in inquiries, it’s unclear to what extent immigration by mainland Chinese language folks will assist the property market.
“Some mainlanders are nonetheless all in favour of funding or relocating to Hong Kong as it’s a window of China to the remainder of the world, particularly with the lure of the High quality Migrant Admission Scheme,” stated Andy Lee, CEO of Centaline Property Company for China. “They might come and purchase a house afterwards.”
Nonetheless, a increase within the brief time period is unlikely due to the excessive value of house purchases and capital switch, Lee added.
“Neither I nor my household has any plan to purchase a house in Hong Kong,” stated Effy Chen, 26, a web-based vogue influencer who is predicated in Guangzhou and has household companies in a number of main cities in China.
“The explanations are easy. It isn’t snug for residing. Properties in Hong Kong are costly however the house is just too small in contrast with different huge cities within the mainland. It’s also not a sensible choice to pour your cash into the actual property sector slightly than different sectors amid a dark market.”
Whereas the reopening of the China-Hong Kong border is anticipated to stimulate the Hong Kong financial system, rising rates of interest will proceed to forged a shadow over the mass residential market, in response to Dorothy Chow, government director for valuation and advisory companies at Colliers Asia.
“Because the financial system revives, constructive components in boosting residential costs together with stock-market efficiency, rising family earnings and restored investor confidence will hopefully carry the residential market again on the restoration observe,” she stated. “While additional rate of interest hikes will proceed to weigh on house costs, we foresee an general 5 to 10 per cent year-on-year downward adjustment in 2023.”
